Tuesday, October 25, 2011

100% Case Fatality Rate on pH1N1 Clade2 Lineage (HA 142V & NA syn204A)

Folks, this is just about the WORST news we could be getting on the bioweapon front, and Ive been telling you all from day one it wasnt a matter of if but WHEN this day would come.  Here we are.

100% Case Fatality Rate on pH1N1 Clade2 Lineage (HA 142V & NA syn204A)

HA 142V appears on 22 pH1N1 human sequences geographically spanning 5 countries covering 16 cases documented from 2009-07-20 (Italy) to 2011-02-04 (Russia). Researchers produced multiple sequences for 5 cases. These 22 sequences delineate on the last day of 2010 from low polymorphic count genetics onto highly polymorphic Clade2: 188T backgrounds. The 9 most current HA 142V sequences share 6 HA revisions and 5 NA revisions demonstrating capable transmission.

At a minimum, 7 of those sequences represent fatalities. These fatality sequences were generated from 2 independent labs. The subjects were geographically dispersed (Nizhnii Novgorod and Vladimir: >100 miles distant). Non-fatality sequences (2) with HA 142V on similar Clade2 backgrounds are on file in a similar region of the world (Tula, Russia and Slovenia). Of 9 Clade2 sequences with HA 142V, 7 are noted as fatal (78% Case Fatality Rate). 5 of those 9 Clade2 sequences carry Receptor Binding Site revisions between HA aa225 and aa230, including 225G, 225N and 230I.

An examination of the Neuraminidase segments provides additional sectioning to the fatalities. The NA segments are hyper-morphic and zoonotic. Each Clade2 fatality with HA 142V carries NA syn204A. The 2 Clade2 non-fatality HA 142V-bearing sequences do not demonstrate the NA syn204A. All NA syn204A (GCa) pH1N1 sequences (7) are in cross-segment combination with HA 142V on a very common Clade2: 188T background.

Potential animal progenitors are found on 18 sequences in Avian and Mink hosts across several serotypes (H4N4, H5N4, H7N1, H8N4, H10N4). The databases do not yet appear to demonstrate NA syn204A (GCa) on an Avian H1N1 sequence. Future Avian H1N1 deposits may very well demonstrate that this value has crossed to human pH1N1 via an Avian H1N1 bridge (intermediate) from one of the noted H4N4, H5N4, H7N1, H8N4 or H10N4 serotypes.

7 human fatalities on 7 cases across 2 cities and 2 labs each bearing the rare HA 142V and the rarer NA syn204A merit attention as a potential “flashfire” candidate due to the 100% Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of this transmissible combination found on the most dominant pH1N1 Clade. Early detection of "flashfire" strains (High CFR) via increased surveillance is essential to public health planning.
Case Fatality Rates for HA 142V

44% CFR Overall (7 of 16)
78% CFR on Clade2 (2010-12-31 to 2011-02-14) (7 of 9)
78% CFR in Northern Hemisphere from 2010-12-31 to 2011-02-14 (7 of 9)
100% CFR with NA syn204A (7 of 7)

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